Sunday, May 4, 2008

Hume- section VI- probability

In this section on Hume's book, he is discussing probability. He says that probability is different from chance. He says that an example of probability can be on a die. If someone drew a mark on four sides of a die( the same mark) and then drew a different mark that was on the other two sides, it is more probable that the first mark would show up as a result more than the other because there is more of them on the die. He also says that since fire has always burned wood, if you were take a piece of wood and try to light it on fire, the wood will probably catch on fire. When I was reading this section I was thinking about how he said chance is not probability and no body can predict your chances. Chances is also like luck. In today's world a lot of people beleive in luck. I know I do. Whether you say you are lucky or unlucky, you are still going against an impossible prediction. When you think about gambling and the lotto, it's crazy because you put in so much money and you are not guarenteed to win anything that night. It is a possibility that you can just lose and lose and lose and not win ever. I think it is crazy how so many people make choices based on their luck, when really when you think about it luck does not exist. Only probablity exists.

1 comment:

Gabrielle Pescatore said...

Yeah, I agree with you. I could never throw that much money away to soemthing I am never gauranteed to get. My mom plays the lottery faithfully every week for as long as I can remeber-she never has won but she still keeps her hopes up for it. My aunt and uncle usually go to a casino every Saturday night. IT's funny because actually the probability of them winning is high every week, just for reason I guess you can they're "lucky".